The NBA Draft is one day away, and I wanted to throw my two cents into the prediction pool, so that I, too, can look back in a couple of years and see just how wrong I was. I was notoriously down on both Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns, however I did predict both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard would be All-Stars, so maybe I’ll nail a few this year too.
I’ve decided to divide the “consensus” top 15 players into three categories: Prospects I Like, Meh, and Prospects I Don’t Like. I’ll also include a section for a few players that I think will end up being the biggest steals in this year’s draft. The players within the categories are in no particular order.
Prospects I Like
These are prospects that I think are underrated or ranked appropriately in current mock drafts.
DeAndre Ayton
DeAndre Ayton is potentially the most impressive physical specimen the NBA Draft has seen since Greg Oden. Additionally, Ayton doesn’t have the injury concerns Oden had. He’s big, strong, athletic, and he knows how to use all those tools to put the ball in the basket. I could definitely see him putting up almost identical stats to Karl-Anthony towns, in the range of 20/12 on 50/35/85. His only clear weakness is his effort and feel on the defensive end, things that I think a good NBA coaching staff can correct. At his absolute peak, he could be a defender who protects the rim, while also comfortably switching onto perimeter players. He has all the tools to do so.
Regardless of if he improves defensively, Ayton projects to be an All-NBA level offensive talent, someone who could be a bonafide #1 scoring option for a playoff team.
NBA Projection: David Robinson
Marvin Bagley
Like Ayton, Marvin Bagley is someone who projects to excel on offense and struggle initially on defense. Bagley is far and away the quickest off the dribble of any big man in this draft, and he uses that elite quickness to get to the rim and finish. He’s not a one-trick pony, but he’s only got a few tools at this point, and he needs to diversify his offensive game to unlock his potential, but, as is, he still projects to be an elite offensive player in the NBA. Defensively, I have genuine concerns about his ability to guard centers, because of his wingspan, and forwards, because of his lack of lateral quickness and defensive effort. He needs to make sure he is a good enough scorer to counteract his mediocre defense.
Bagley’s offensive game brings to mind All-NBA talent like Chris Bosh or Anthony Davis, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. If he proves to be an average NBA defender, he could be a perennial All-Star.
NBA Projection: Anthony Davis on offense, Michael Beasley on defense
Michael Porter Jr.
If you had to bet on one player from this class to win a scoring title, it might be Michael Porter Jr. He scores easily and fluidly, and that projects to translate to the NBA. He is at his best when his team is running sets to get him jump shots off the catch or off the dribble, and he can shoot it at all three levels. In the NBA, defenders are going to crowd him, and I think he will learn to balance his game by putting the ball on the floor and taking it to the hoop. On defense, he could become a game changer. He’s a rare player that could switch onto all 5 positions, like a Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard. However, he’s not quite there yet. The biggest concern, by far, with Porter is his injury history. He missed a majority of his lone season at Missouri due to herniated disks in his back, and, generally, NBA players and back problems aren’t a good combination.
We will see just how worried NBA teams are about Michael Porter’s injury history on draft night. If he falls, I may have to reconsider my position, but, right now, I feel like the sky’s the limit for him.
NBA Projection: Paul George with injury concerns
Jaron Jackson Jr.
Jaron Jackson Jr. is somewhat unique in this class, as he is someone that is almost assuredly going to be a defensive star, but his offensive game is less certain. From the get-go, Jackson will be a player that can comfortably switch onto all five positions while playing center. He is also a monster on help defense and could be among the lead leaders in blocked shots. Any team that drafts him will instantly have a defensive identity, and defensive teams tend to stay in games even if they have less talent. Offensively, “raw” is the only word to describe Jackson. He’s not an incredibly explosive athlete like Ayton or Bagley, but he is strong and fluid. He has a good spot up jump shot, but, besides that, it’s a big question mark how he’ll score at the NBA level. Hopefully, a good NBA coaching staff can help him develop some kind of reliable offensive tool to fall back on.
Even if he never improves offensively, Jaron Jackson Jr. could be a perennial DPOY candidate. He is someone that can change the face of a franchise from the defensive end.
NBA Projection: Ben Wallace with a jump shot
Mo Bamba
Mo Bamba is jumping up people’s draft boards recently. I’ve been pretty consistent in my opinion on him. He’s a bit of a gamble, but he’s shown glimpses on both sides of the ball that make you wonder what his ceiling is. Most big men with his height and length are not as fluid and quick as he is. He’s a great rim runner and can hit a 3-pointer when he needs to. He’s also shown a few glimpses of a developing post game. Defensively is where he projects to shine. He is the best shot blocker in this class, and, like Ayton, he has all the tools to switch onto perimeter players when called upon, however he needs to improve on doing so.
Mo Bamba needs to continue to develop on both sides of the ball, but players with his size and athleticism don’t come along very often. He’s a great pick for a team in the lottery trying to make a splash.
NBA Projection: a poor man’s Kristaps Porzingis
Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges has possibly the highest floor in this draft. From day one he will be an incredibly valuable 3-and-D player. Someone who can guard the opposing team’s primary ball handler, while simultaneously not detracting on the offensive side. That is almost a guarantee at this point. What excites me about Bridges, and why is in “Prospects I Like” and not “Meh,” is his potential to be even more. Bridges improved every single year at Villanova, and, this last year, he showed glimpses of more than just a 3-and-D player. He, albeit sporadically, scored with his back to the basket, off of pull-up jump shots, attacking close-outs, and even in isolation plays. Could a good NBA coach continue that development? Instead of being the ball handler in the pick-and-roll twice per game, could he do it 10 times per game?
At the very least, Mikal Bridges will be a good NBA starter, who knows what is expected of him and does it. However, the potential for more is what’s most exciting to me.
NBA Projection: Otto Porter with a small chance of becoming Kawhi Leonard
Collin Sexton
Collin Sexton will be the best point guard in this draft class in my opinion. A lot of experts are saying this is a weak class for point guards, but I think Sexton is just as exciting of a prospect as any of the point guards in the last few classes. He does almost everything well. He can initiate offense, create his own shot, create for others, shoot, pass, defend, all at an NBA level. What sets him apart is his tenacity, leadership, and desire to win. He’s one of those rare players that puts it all on the line every second of every game, on both sides of the court.
What would happen if you put Russell Westbrook in Eric Bledsoe’s body? I think Collin Sexton is the answer, and I think that is a pretty, damn good basketball player.
NBA Projection: Eric Bledsoe with Russell Westbrook’s tenacity
Meh
These are prospects that I think are slightly overvalued in current mock drafts.
Luka Doncic
As Luka Doncic falls down draft boards less than a week before the draft, I feel like an NBA draft hipster. I have never been super hot on Doncic. I think he is an average NBA athlete, and that will prevent him from ever being an All-NBA level player on both offense and defense. I don’t think he has the quickness or burst to consistently beat NBA defenders off the dribble 1-on-1, and I think he will always be a defensive liability because of his average lateral quickness. On top of his athletic shortcomings, he’s being advertised as a “sharp-shooter,” while his career 3P% sits at 33%, and he showed regression during this last season, shooting 31% after becoming his team’s primary ball-handler.
All that being said, I still think he will be a good player; I just don’t think he is worth a top 3 pick. I foresee him being much more of a Tyreke Evans than a James Harden.
NBA Projection: Tyreke Evans
Kevin Knox
Kevin Knox is one of those players that has all the tools, but can’t seem to put it together. The guy has the size, athleticism, and skill to be a top draft pick, but he can’t bring the “whole” to be equal to the sum of the parts. He can score, but he struggles to do so consistently, and he fades away when forced to create on his own. He has the size and athleticism to be a lockdown defender, but he lacks the focus and fundamentals to do so.
I think Kevin Knox will end up being an empty volume scorer with sub-par defense on a bad team, or a spark plug role player off the bench for a decent team, but I don’t think he will ever put all of his talents together.
NBA Projection: a poor man’s Andrew Wiggins
Wendell Carter
Like Doncic, I think Wendell Carter will be a very solid player. He is one of the most versatile big men in the draft, offensively. He can score in the post, shoot, pass, but he lacks that extra gear that will make him a real star in the NBA. I’m seeing a lot of experts compare him favorably to Al Horford, but, while that may be true on offense, can he be the defensive linchpin Horford is? No way! Carter will block some shots, but he will never be able to switch screens or win a game without scoring a point like Horford can. He’s a versatile, below-the-rim big man on offense, and the Horford comparisons stop there.
Wendell Carter should have a solid career. He could even be a starter on most teams, but, in the playoffs, against the Houstons and Golden States of the NBA, he will get played off the floor on the defensive end.
NBA Projection: a poor man’s Al Horford on offense, a poor man’s Derrick Favors on defense
Robert Williams
Robert Williams is a rim running/shot blocking big man. Like Jackson Jr. or Bamba, the hope would be that Williams can switch onto perimeter players and hold his own. I’m not confident he will be able to do that, and he also brings nothing to the table offensively besides dunks and tip-ins. It is going to take a patient NBA coaching staff and many years of development before Williams is a viable option in the NBA.
Robert Williams is this draft’s boom-or-bust big man prospect. Sometimes they work out, and sometimes they don’t. I don’t think the risk is worth it for where he is generally mocked.
NBA Projection: a very poor man’s Clint Capela
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Like Doncic and Carter, again, I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be a good player for a long time. However there is chatter that teams like the Raptors and Pacers are willing to trade into the top 10 to grab him. I think that is a bit much. I foresee Gilgeous-Alexander as one of those career backup/borderline starter point guards in the mold of post-injury Shaun Livingston, with the game impact of a Jeremy Lin. He’s not a player that can really create his own shot or shoot off the dribble. His slow, methodical drives to the hoop don’t project to translate to the NBA, where every defender is bigger, stronger, and faster than the best players he faced in college. He’s a good spot up shooter and passer out of the pick-and-roll, but he doesn’t have the athleticism to take his game to the next level.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be a good, smart player in the NBA, but I think he is best suited as a premiere backup point guard. I don’t think that is something you aim to get in the lottery, when players like Jalen Brunson will be available 20 spots later.
NBA Projection: Shaun Livingston
Prospects I Don’t Like
These are prospects that I feel are massively overrated in current mock drafts.
Trae Young
To put it bluntly, I don’t think Trae Young will be a good NBA player. Steph Curry has taken the NBA by storm and changed the way we think about point guards, but that doesn’t mean you draft every player that plays like him. Trae Young dominated at the college level, but only on offense. Plainly put, Trae Young was one of the worst defenders in college basketball last year, and he doesn’t project to be any better at the NBA level. He has a short wingspan, he’s not laterally quick, and he doesn’t have a good feel for rotations or his spot on the floor. Every year, in the playoffs, we see teams get their best player switched onto Steph Curry, so they can get the easy isolation play, and Steph Curry is 10 times better on defense than Trae Young. I just don’t see it. He will have to score 25-30 ppg to make up for his negative defensive impact.
For every Steph Curry in the NBA draft, there are 100 Jimmer Fredettes. Unfortunately, I see Trae Young as the latter. I hope he proves me wrong.
NBA Projection: Jimmer Fredette
Miles Bridges
Miles Bridges does a lot of things very well. He has insane athleticism. He can shoot. He can rebound. However, he has a few glaring weaknesses that I think will prevent him from really being a good NBA player. Firstly, he has a pretty small wingspan for his size. For someone who doesn’t really have the ball skills to be a 2 or 3, he also doesn’t really have the size or length to guard 4 or 5’s. I think this will be a major problem for teams when trying to play him extended minutes. Secondly, he is not a good ball handler, and he turns the ball over a lot. In the NBA he isn’t going to be the most athletic person on the floor every second of every game like he was in college. He’s going to need to be able to put the ball on the floor to score, and he really struggles to do that.
Miles Bridges lack of height and length, mixed with his poor ball skills don’t set him up for a starring role in the NBA. I think he will struggle on both sides of the ball until he finds his niche.
NBA Projection: Jae Crowder without the defense
Zhaire Smith
Zhaire Smith has a case for the most raw athleticism of any prospect in the draft. He can jump out the gym. He was also an effective and tenacious defender at the college level, which has led many to claim he will be one of the best 3-and-D players to come out of the draft, with the chance that he develops into something more. I’m not so sure about all of that. While he shot well in college, scouts have noted that his release is slow and clunky and will need to be changed in order to be effective at the NBA level. On defense, he is known for his hyper-aggressive style, but that same aggression leads him to blow assignments and have mental lapses off ball. He was a serviceable ball handler at the college level, but he showed pretty much zero ability to create for himself or others and struggled when he was asked to do so.
To me, Zhaire Smith is a tremendous athlete, who will basically need to rework every aspect of his game upon being drafted. That’s way too much risk for my comfort in the top 15 picks.
NBA Projection: Shannon Brown
Steals of the Draft
Khyri Thomas
Khyri Thomas is a combo guard who does everything well, but he has a few skills that could prove to be elite at the NBA level. In college he was known for his defense, and his insane wingspan should help him be a lockdown defender in the NBA. He will be able to switch 1-3 easily and fill up the stat sheet with steals and deflections. On offense he’s no slouch either. He scored 15.1 ppg on 54/41/79 splits, while attempting nearly 5 3PTs per game. He’s comfortable on or off ball, and he can create for himself and others out of the pick-and-roll.
It would not surprise me at all if Khyri Thomas turned out to be a top 5 player in this draft class. At worst, I think he will be an Avery Bradley clone, while his potential is All-NBA defensive teams and All-Star selections.
NBA Projection: Jrue Holiday
Troy Brown
Troy Brown is a really interesting player. His most marketable skill is his ball handling for his size. He is someone who can switch 1-4 on defense, while also being the team’s primary or secondary ball handler for stretches. He has shown to be able to create shots for his teammates, and he is developing at creating his own shot. He is definitely not a great shooter, but he is improving, and he’s good enough to keep a team honest.
Troy Brown is someone who could be a 6MOTY candidate, in the mold of Golden State’s Andre Iguodala or a very good starter, if he improves his jumper. At pick 20-40, that’s a lot of value.
NBA Projection: Golden State version of Andre Iguodala
Elie Okobo
Elie Okobo is a big, strong point guard, who can seemingly do it all. He is a good shooter. He is a good finisher. He is a good defender. He’s also one of the best playmakers out of the pick-and-roll in the entire draft. The problem with Okobo is that he is incredibly streaky. He goes through extremely bad stretches of missed shots and turnovers. Many players can clean this up when they make the jump from college to the pros. I think he will be able to do it.
While not an elite athlete, he is definitely a good one, and he has all the tools to be a quality starting point guard. I like him much more than Trae Young or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, yet he is projected to go somewhere between 15 and 30.
NBA Projection: a poor man’s Deron Williams