Theoretical 2016-2017 NBA Expansion Draft

One of my favorite aspects of the NBA is the front office. Its a thankless job. Most NBA fans probably can’t name more than three or four general managers, but a competent front office is vital to winning games. If a coach steers the ship, a general manager designs, builds, and maintains it. In the last decade it’s become increasingly obvious that a good front office can bring a team prolonged success (Spurs), and a bad front office can quickly doom a team to constant mediocrity (Kings).

Bill Barnwell recently broke down what a realistic NFL expansion team would look like. I thought it would be equally interesting to explore the possibilities within an NBA expansion draft. The talent disparity in the NBA is a lot wider than that in the NFL, so you wouldn’t find very many established, quality players available. Even if you could, you might not want them, because you’d want to hold on to that top draft pick the following year.

I decided to put on my GM glasses and simulate a theoretical NBA expansion draft.

The Team

The NBA isn’t planning on having an expansion draft any time soon, and it’s unlikely that a team will move, but… the most likely city to host an expansion team would have to be Seattle.

In our imaginary scenario Bill Gates and a group of minority owners (including Macklemore and Sir Mix-a-Lot) decide to capitalize on the city’s rich basketball history and large potential fan base. If the Seattle Seahawks have taught us anything, its that the people of Seattle will fervently support their team if its good. Well, we don’t plan on being bad forever, so the Seattle Sonics will be the NBA’s 31st franchise.

The Rules

The last NBA expansion draft occurred June 22, 2004 for the Charlotte Bobcats. I based most of the rules for my theoretical expansion draft on it, but I made some small changes to keep it simple.

• Each team can protect eight players on their roster from being selected. These players must be under contract or have a team option for the 2016-2017 NBA season. I made the eight selections that I would make if I was that team’s GM.
• Each team must designate one player for selection if they don’t have more than eight players under contract.
• Restricted free agents qualify to be selected. If selected, the Bird rights for those players would move over to the expansion team.
• I went ahead and eliminated players who had a player option for the 2016-2017 season since it is impossible to tell who would accept or decline their options.
• Unrestricted free agents do not qualify to be protected or selected. Players like Kevin Durant, DeMar DeRozan, and Al Horford could all hit free agency during the 2016 offseason, so the expansion team would have to bid for those players just like everyone else.
• Current estimates have the 2016-2017 salary cap at somewhere around $89 million. The cap for the expansion team would be 66% of that – So around $59 million.
• This would put the salary floor at around $53 million since it is generally 90% of the salary cap. The salary floor is essentially meaningless, but it helped me format my roster.
• The expansion team must choose 14 players.

The Plan

There are a lot of potential head coaches for our franchise. Veteran coaches like Tom Thibodeau, Scott Brooks, and Mark Jackson remain jobless. If we REALLY wanted to secure the top overall pick for the 2017 draft and eliminate any and all chance of early success, we could hire tank commander Byron Scott (assuming the Lakers decide they’d like to win and let him go). However, I’m a fan of hiring assistants from smart coaches. My top two targets would be Ime Udoka of the San Antonio Spurs and Luke Walton of the Golden State Warriors. We’re going to go ahead and hire Luke Walton since its more realistic he’s the head coach of an NBA franchise for the 2016-2017 NBA season.

We’re going to play fast. We’re going to fly up and down the court, getting lots of dunks, blocks, threes, and steals. We’re going to accept that we will be bad for a couple of years, so we might as well put on a show for the fans while we are. Hopefully coach Walton can implement some solid sets and accelerate player development.

As far as our plan for the expansion draft goes, we prioritized potential above all else. Good teams always find those diamonds in the rough, whether its the Spurs and Danny Green, the Hawks and DeMarre Carroll, or the Celtics and Jae Crowder. Even the Bobcats found All-Star Gerald Wallace during that 2004 expansion draft. There are definitely some future NBA studs being ignored at the bottom of some teams’ rosters, and our job in this draft is to find them.

The Picks

I’m going to go team by team and show the players that have been designated. Players we picked will be in bold with their 2016-2017 salary in parenthesis. Restricted free agents will have to be signed after being selected, so I tried to give fair market value for them based on last years free agency.

Atlanta Hawks

• F/C Tiago Splitter
• G Lamar Patterson

Tiago Splitter is an established veteran. It may seem unlikely the Hawks protect a player like Walter Tavares in front of him, but keep in mind Splitter will be coming off hip surgery and is owed around $9 million next year. The Hawks would seize the opportunity to dump his contract. Lamar Patterson was a player I wanted to pick, but just couldn’t. There are better picks ahead.

Boston Celtics

• F/C Amir Johnson
• F Jonas Jerebko
• G Terry Rozier
• G/F James Young
•  F Jordan Mickey

Amir Johnson is a very solid player. I actually worry he is TOO solid, and would contribute to too many wins while eating the minutes of younger players. Same with Jerebko. Rozier, Young, and Mickey all show promise, but are not worth the risk in my opinion.

Brooklyn Nets

• F Thomas Robinson
• F Willie Reed

Not much to see here. Robinson has had plenty of chances under multiple coaches. Reed is a dime a dozen.

Charlotte Hornets

• G Troy Daniels

I actually like Daniels quite a bit, but there’s reason to believe he won’t get much better than he currently is.

Chicago Bulls

• G/F Tony Snell
• F/C Cameron Bairstow
• F/C Cristiano Felicio

Unlike Chicago Bulls fans, I actually like Tony Snell. He dominated the Summer League a few years back and has the physical skills to be solid, but I had to pass.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• C Sasha Kaun

Sasha Kaun is too old for our team.

Dallas Mavericks

• C Salah Mejri

Again, too old.

Denver Nuggets

• F Wilson Chandler
• G Jameer Nelson
• G/F Jakarr Sampson ($1,000,000)

Our first selection! Jakarr Sampson was a fan favorite for the 76ers before being jettisoned to the Nuggets. He has a great physical skill-set, and plays hard. He reminds me of pre-Atlanta Demarre Carroll, which is why I picked him. Like Demarre, I’m betting on our coaching staff teaching him to shoot. Wilson Chandler is another solid player, but I feel his contract is untradable, and he’ll be out of his prime before we are ready to compete.

Detroit Pistons

• G/F Reggie Bullock ($2,300,000)
• G Spencer Dinwiddie ($1,000,000)
• G/F Darrun Hilliard

I discovered I really like the Piston’s young talent. Bullock is becoming a solid 3 and D player in Van Gundy’s system, but is buried in their depth chart, and Dinwiddie is a big combo guard who could be very good if he develops his shot.

Golden State Warriors

• F Kevin Looney ($1,200,000)
• G Ian Clark
• F James Michael McAdoo

Kevin Looney is the definition of potential. He’s only 20 and has a wide skill-set and terrific physical tools. He could very well turn into a solid play making, stretch 4, but he isn’t going to get much playing time behind Draymond and Iggy.

Houston Rockets

• F/C Donatas Motiejunas (RFA)

Some people might disagree that the Rockets would allow D-Mo to remain unprotected, but I’d point to the recent trade deadline, where Morey would have traded him for a pair of Jordans if D-Mo could have passed a physical. Assuming they left him unprotected, Motiejunas is exactly the chance I’m willing to take. He has proven he can be a star when healthy. He just can’t stay healthy. Since he’d be a restricted free agent, I’d try to sign him for something along the lines of 2 years, 20 million with a third year team option. I believe that would be fair market value under the expanding salary cap.

Indiana Pacers

• F Rakeem Christmas
• G Joseph Young
• F/C Shayne Whittington

I don’t really like any of these three players.

Los Angeles Clippers

• F Branden Dawson

Dawson could be decent, but I doubt he gets there.

Los Angeles Lakers

• F Ryan Kelly
• G Marcelo Huertas

Kelly has gotten playing time on some terrible teams, and Huertas is way too old.

Memphis Grizzlies

• G/F Vince Carter

Surprisingly, Vince Carter is on contract for the 2016-2017 season. He’s almost 40, so Vinsanity won’t be coming to Seattle.

Miami Heat

• G Josh Richardson ($900,000)

Josh Richardson is playing really well for Miami this year. He can shoot, pass, and run the floor, and they would probably protect him if they could. Unfortunately, they only have six players under contract for next year, so they would have to designate either Richardson or Tyler Johnson, and I think they would rather keep Johnson, which works our well for us. Richardson is a stud.

Milwaukee Bucks

• F Damien Inglis
• F Johnny O’Bryant

I really wanted to take Inglis, but I think there are safer bets elsewhere. Don’t be surprised if he turns into a very solid player though.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• C Nikola Pekovic ($12,100,000)
• F/C Adreian Payne
• F Damjan Rudez

I selected Pekovic mostly to hit the salary floor. Unlike other overpaid centers available, his contract will be up in a year. He’s a good player, and he hustles hard, but he’ll be coming off a season ending injury, and creates a log jam at center for the Wolves. We’ll take him.

New Orleans Pelicans

• C Omer Asik
• G Toney Douglas

Asik’s contract is ridiculous. New Orleans would probably pay us money under the table to take it off their hands.

New York Knicks

• G Jose Calderon

Calderon is owed nearly $8 million next year. I’m sure the Knicks would love to dump that salary. Unfortunately for them, I’d rather develop younger players.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• F Kyle Singler
• F/C Nick Collison
• F Josh Huestis
• Dion Waiters (RFA)

For the Thunder, it came down to protecting either Anthony Morrow or Dion Waiters for their 8th spot. I chose Morrow, because he is very solid for them. Waiters is another gamble that could pay off big. He has obvious promise, but his poor decision making seems to be his Achilles heel. Hopefully Coach Walton could get him to buy into our team first approach. I’d try to sign him for something like 3 years, $24 million. I don’t think he’d get a better offer on the open market.

Orlando Magic

• G CJ Watson
• G Shabazz Napier
• G/F Devyn Marble
• C Dewayne Dedmon

Napier and Marble were both considered, but neither one made the final cut.

Philadelphia 76ers

• F Carl Laundry
• C Joel Anthony
• G Kendall Marshall
• F Richaun Holmes
• G Isaiah Canaan (RFA)

I’m probably Isaiah Canaan’s biggest fan, and I have been since he was in college. He possesses the hottest trait in the NBA today – shooting. Unfortunately he just hasn’t been able to put it together on the woeful 76ers. I’d select him and sign him to a 3 year, $12 million dollar deal.

Phoenix Suns

• C Tyson Chandler
• G John Jenkins

The Suns don’t want Chandler’s contract. Neither do I. It was a bad contract when they signed him, and its even worse going forward. John Jenkins is a shooter who can’t shoot. Pass.

Portland Trail Blazers

• F Noah Vonleh ($2,800,000)
• F Cliff Alexander
• G/F Luis Montero
• G Pat Connaughton ($900,000)

Noah Vonleh is another young guy overflowing with potential. He’s athletic and has shown he could have a nice jumper with some work. I’d take this gamble any day. Pat Connaughton is another guy I’ve liked for a while. He is quietly one of the most athletic players in the league (because he’s white), and he can really shoot the ball. He won’t get much playing time behind McCollum and Crabbe, so we’ll welcome him with open arms.

Sacramento Kings

• F Duje Dukan
• G Seth Curry
• F/C Eric Moreland

After going through every roster and analyzing which players that team would protect and designate, I realized Duje Dukan was the ONLY player I had never even heard of. Upon further inspection I discovered he played 15.9 mpg for Wisconsin last year, scoring a whopping 4.7 ppg on .387/.319/.674 shooting. I guess that’s good enough to be on the Kings… But here in Seattle we have higher standards.

San Antonio Spurs

• F Kyle Anderson ($1,200,000)

I think most people agree that Kyle Anderson will be a solid player. The Spurs just happen to have eight players under contract better than him, which is insane. Anderson can play 2-4, can pass like a 1, and with a little coaching could be a similar player to young Boris Diaw. He just happens to be stuck behind the real Boris Diaw. Lucky break for us.

Toronto Raptors

• C Lucas Nogueira ($1,900,000)

Nogueira is a lanky center who can run the floor and defend the rim. He’s worth a pick. Rim protectors will always have value.

Utah Jazz

• G Trey Burke ($3,400,000)
• C Tibor Pleiss
• F Trey Lyles
• G Shelvin Mack
• F Joe Ingles
• G Chris Johnson

People forget Trey Burke is just 23 and was a stud at Michigan. I actually asked some Jazz fans who they would rather protect between Raul Neto and Trey Burke, and it was unanimously Neto. Oh well, I like Burke, and he’ll get a chance in Seattle. I also really like Joe Ingles. He’s an excellent glue guy and has great vision for his size, but he’ll be almost 30 by the time our team takes the court.

Washington Wizards

• F Drew Gooden

No.

Salaries

• Nikola Pekovic – $12,100,000
• Trey Burke – $3,400,000
• Noah Vonleh – $2,800,000
• Reggie Bullock – $2,300,000
• Lucas Nogueira – $1,900,000
• Kevin Looney – $1,200,000
• Kyle Anderson – $1,200,000
• Jakarr Sampson – $1,000,000
• Spencer Dinwiddie – $1,000,000
• Josh Richardson – $900,000
• Pat Connaughton – $900,000
• Donatas Motiejunas (RFA) 2/20 million
• Dion Waiters (RFA) 3/24 million
• Isaiah Canaan (RFA) 3/12 million

Total: $50.7 million

We came in about $2.3 million under that salary floor, which, like I said earlier, doesn’t really matter. I would have had to take on another bloated veteran contract to get there, and that would waste a roster spot I could use on a young player. I’ll give myself credit for getting close.

The Roster

Our team would look something like…

PG – Trey Burke – Isaiah Canaan – Spencer Dinwiddie

SG – Dion Waiters – Josh Richardson – Pat Connaughton

SF – Kyle Anderson – Reggie Bullock – Jakarr Sampson

PF – Donatas Motiejunas – Noah Vonleh – Kevin Looney

C – Nikola Pekovic – Lucas Nogueira

This team wouldn’t be good, which is kind of the point, but it would have a lot of promise. If we could get one or two top draft picks in the following years and develop a handful of the players on the roster, we could become competitive.

This was an interesting exercise. I think it really shows what you, as a GM, would prioritize when making a team. I prioritize potential, shooting, and passing much more than defense or current ability.

Let me know what you would do if you were the GM of the next NBA expansion team.